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House of Representatives MetaPoll

2 July 2016

Released 5:30pm 2 July 2016. This is our final release for the 2016 election. It is an update on the July 1 release, with the addition of the election day NewsPoll and the latest betting data.

The House of Representatives (HoR) MetaPoll is our signature release, calculated using all publicly available polling and betting market data, combined using our proprietary algorithms. This particular release does not include one of our own HoR polls, although preference flows are informed by our own polls findings. Read more about the methodology here.

This  1 July release is based on data from 22 June 2016 to 2 July 2016, an 11 day period. Approximately 10,000 total responses across a range of pollsters are included in the result, in addition to betting data. The included pollsters are NewsPoll, Essential, ReachTEL and Ipsos.

Two-party preferred

On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition would have won 50.8% of the vote if an election were held in this past month. This is down 2.7 percentage points from 53.5% at the 2013 election. (The Coalition's two-party preferred vote would need to drop an estimated 4 to 5 percentage points from the last election for Labor to win a majority).

Methodological note: MetaPoll does not use the two-party preferred figures given by other pollsters in performing its aggregates. Rather, primary voting intention is used, with adjustments and corrections being applied at this level before the preferences of non-major parties are allocated according to our methods. Read an overview of our methods here.

Seats

If an election had been held in the past month, the Coalition would have secured a reduced majority in the HoR, dropping nine seats from 90 to 81. Labor would have gained eight seats from 55 to 63. The cross-bench would have enlarged to six seats.

National polling results don't easily allow for results to be predicted in non-Coalition vs. Labor contests. Based on seat level betting market data we predicted the following results for the cross-bench.

The Palmer United Party would have lost its single seat. The Greens would have doubled its representation to two seats. The Nick Xenophon Team would have gained its first lower-house seat. There would be two Independents.

Overall, we are predicting that the Coalition would be returned to government with a comfortable majority.

Methodological note: Due to the probabilistic nature of our seat modeling, which employs Monte Carlo simulation among other methods, this represents the most likely outcome at an overall party level and we do not publish which seats are expected to be won or lost.

Polls-only result

MetaPoll also produces a polls-only result of HoR voter intention, exclusive of betting market data.

The poll-only result shows the Coalition leading Labor by a slightly higher margin, at 51.1% % to 48.9%, representing a swing of 2.4 percentage points against the Coalition compared to the last election.

The polls-only result shows the primary votes of the parties as follow: Coalition at 41.7%, Labor at 34.6%, Greens at 10.4%, and other parties & independents at 13.4%. For the Greens, this is a rise of 1.7 percentage points since the last election, while for independents/others, it represents rise of 1.0 percentage point.

The approximate margins of error of individual polls is shown below for reference. An individual survey of the same size as our aggregate would have a margin of error of approximately one percentage point assuming a representative sample. Due to the various weightings applied by the other pollsters and the fact that they publish a rounded result, among other factors, MetaPoll's estimated margin of error is slightly higher than this.